Hotel Empress, 235 East Hastings

“If homeowners can just hold off selling, the Canadian housing market will emerge fine from its current “deep freeze”. According to a recent TD Economics housing forecast update, the market is expected to gradually recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. After an anticipated “historic” plunge in sales in the month of April 2020, a “much stronger activity” is seen next year. A lot of that depends on whether homeowners can avoid distressed selling during this pandemic. “Absolutely key to our forecasts is the assumption that listings mirror sales by dropping substantially in the near-term and recovering gradually thereafter,” Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Economics, wrote. By holding off on selling, homeowners can do one thing for the market. “This puts a floor on prices and sustains relatively tight-supply demand balances across most markets, allowing for the resumption of positive price growth as provincial economies are re-opened,” Sondhi explained.” – excerpt from ‘Homeowners avoiding distressed selling key to Canadian housing market recovery: TD Economics’, Carlito Pablo, 1 May 2020, Georgia Straight No, folks, that ‘analysis’ is not from ‘The Onion’. Seems like the TD analysts have found a sure fire way of maintaining every bull market, forever… (it’s easy: just get sellers not to sell). It’s remarkable that this kind of ‘analysis’ can get parroted on & on without getting called out. Remember: Sellers aren’t competing with Buyers, they’re competing with other Sellers. How many Vancouver RE speculators (essentially each and every buyer for the last 10-15 years) are going to realize their thus-far-paper profits? We are already seeing many anecdotal examples of people who bought in 2016 or later taking losses on resales. – vreaa

As you walk down various current-day commercial districts throughout Vancouver, have you ever noticed houses that appear to pop out the top or the backside of store fronts? These store-house combinations can also be spotted throughout various photographs of streetscapes in the Archives’ holdings, and are often a product of residential streets evolving into commercial use areas. A fitting term for them is ‘buried houses’.[1] A buried house at 1120 Robson Street, 1974. Reference code: COV-S509-: CVA 778-341 It can be interesting to try to speculate what the layout of the original house was based on similar house designs of the period and try to figure out what was changed during the conversion to a commercial space. Some of the house-store combinations in the photos make it look as if little was altered other than the equivalent of a boxed in area sprouting out of the front of the house. However, others have clearly had extensive alterations, and of course generally have had even further alterations throughout the decades. A store front that appears more like a box addition to the exterior of a house on Davie Street between Thurlow and Bute Streets, 1928. Reference code: AM54-S4-: Str N266.1 Store fronts where it appears more extensive alterations were done to the houses to which they were attached. Denman Street, 1928. Reference code: AM54-S4-: Str N267.1 An instructive record on how exactly some of the original alterations were designed is an architectural plan for 1132 Robson Street. This plan is part of the City of Vancouver Series 393: Building Permit Application Architectural Drawings. Records in this series have been recently made more discoverable, thanks to ongoing efforts of Archives staff. The descriptions have been uploaded to our database, as previously the only way to search these records was via a card catalogue in our Reading Room. Additional metadata filled out previously scant descriptions, while errant metadata has been corrected. Stay tuned for a future blog post that details all the work that went into this. Architectural plan for alterations to 1132 Robson Street, 1927. Reference code: COV-S393-1-AP-0948 The details of the architectural plan for house alterations for 1132 Robson Street are quite interesting to examine. It is almost as if by looking closely at the notations one can visualize the alterations taking place in real-time. A bathtub is removed and the washroom is made smaller on the first floor, walls are repositioned, new window openings and stairs planned. Details of the architectural plan for alterations to 1132 Robson Street. Notations as to the removal of certain features, and the addition or changes of others can be seen. As part of chasing up more information on this particular building, I fortuitously (after conducting some database searches) came across a photograph of the house-store combination, taken by A.L. Yates in April 1957. The house that corresponds to the architectural plans is the one on the right, with Bonita’s dress shop. Bonita’s dress shop at the time, according to the city directories, was run by Becky Beckman. Living in the upstairs flat (listed as 1132 ½ Robson Street), was Roy Powell, a maintenance worker at the Alaska Pine building. Exterior of 1130 and 1132 Robson Street. 1130 Robson Street on the left was altered eleven years after 1132 Robson Street on the right. Note the different architectural facades in keeping with their respective alteration dates. Photo reference: AM54-S4-: Bu P508.63 The house itself was originally constructed in the 1890s. The exact date is somewhat unclear, as the building permit registers for the City do not go back that far. However, the year of the alterations is known from the 1927 building permit record. The permit lists the owner of the building as A.C. Akroyd, though this was likely a clerical error, as the water service applications for expanding water services to the address indicates the applicant as H.C. Akroyd of the real estate firm Richards, Akroyd & Gall. Building permit register entry for house alterations. Reference code: COV-S385– Water service application made by H.C. Akroyd for enlarged water connection. Reference code: COV-S293 The architect, listed both on the architectural drawing and the building permit, was William Frederick Gardiner. He was a local architect, better known for larger buildings, such as the Hutchinson Block at 429 West Pender Street. The value of the alterations to the house, according to the permit, was $4,000. The Hutchinson Block designed by architect W.F. Gardiner is the tall skinny building at the very right of the photo, as seen in 1932. Reference code: AM1535-: CVA 99-4179 From the time of the house alteration, there were a number of businesses that occupied the shop space, beginning with Florence and Lillian Lewis, dressmakers in 1928, followed by The Paris, another dressmaker business in 1929. Advertisement for the opening of The Paris from The Vancouver Sun, March 13, 1929 By 1930, the category of store shifted to that of tea and coffee emporium, owned and operated by Charles H. Knight. By the end of the 1930s, Knight’s business had moved from the premises, and was replaced once again by a women’s clothing shop under a rotating cast of names and proprietors. Bonita’s makes its first appearance as the shop’s name in 1946, with Mary Burgess as proprietor. Bert and Becky Beckman, according to the city directories, took over Bonita’s in 1948. Bert died in March 1950, but Becky continued to run the

On Wednesday (February 7), City Council will be considering a proposed Gastown Summer 2024 Water Street Pedestrian Zone Pilot Project . A long title, but the gist of the project involves a six-week transformation of Water Street into a mix of car-free and car-lite spaces, along with changes to permitting to increase the size of patios and allow new types of street vending. The pilot is part of a larger initiative to test out ways to pedestrianize parts of Gastown, and linked to a Gastown Public Spaces Plan that’s currently being developed. Cities across Canada (and around the world) are testing new approaches to people-friendly streets. Last year, Montreal alone rolled out 12 large-scale pedestrian transformations across its boroughs. Here in Vancouver, we’ve seen smaller-scale pilots on Granville Street, along with a roster of single-day events in other neighbourhoods. The Water Street pilot is an overdue step in creating livelier, more people-friendly streets. The VPSN wrote to Council and offered our support for the pilot project, along with five suggestions which we felt would strengthen the pilot. 1. Increase the duration of the pilot project Culture change, particularly when related to transportation and business practices, takes time to ‘filter outward’ to the broader public, tourists, and specific user groups. For those engaged in programming the space, the opportunity for small-scale testing, learning and adjustment also takes time. Good quality “tactical” interventions are iterative in nature. A key challenge in this regard: the current pilot is only six weeks in length, and any construction-related delays will further constrain an already-narrow window of opportunity. Recommendation: We suggest extending the pilot through to the end of September, and ideally to Thanksgiving (mid-October). 2. Undertake public life studies before, during, and after the pilot. Public life studies assess both the volume of people in a space, but more importantly what they’re doing and how they are spending time. More detailed analysis can also explore key demographic considerations, people’s motivations for coming to a public space, their sentiments about the space, and other considerations. Undertaking these studies at key milestones can provide a much clearer picture about the efficacy of a placemaking project. The current pilot only outlines a plan to undertake vehicle and pedestrian counts (p.5). Recommendation: Direct staff to undertake more detailed public life studies at key project milestones. Provide additional funding to support this work. 3. Prepare for uncertainty – particularly with automobile and tour bus routing. We have long stated that the Gastown transportation network is a ‘sticky problem.’ The existing block and alley configuration, and mix of uses (residential, commercial, tourist, etc.) makes the situation complex. We confess an uncertainty about the ‘dumbbell’ approach outlined by staff: two car-free “gateways” (Cordova to Cambie and a portion of Maple Tree Square), and two interior car-light blocks. This limits some of the larger programming opportunities that might otherwise be available, and also poses a challenge about the legibility of the changes to both car drivers and pedestrians alike. We recognize that different ideas will need to be tested to determine the best long-term solution. Recommendation: Ensure that traffic monitoring methodologies test for pedestrian/automobile conflict. We further suggest detailed monitoring at Maple Tree Square and Blood Alley, as the diversions proposed in this area could pose challenges for the use of these public spaces. 4. Create opportunities for community-led interventions. As presently drafted, the Gastown Pilot report focuses mainly on the enabling conditions for late summer activation, and a series of initiatives to test changes to permitting (e.g., for larger patios, sidewalk merchandise, etc.). These are important, but we suggest that you should also be looking to enable opportunities for other types of placemaking – in particular, community-led activations. Having organized several events in Gastown over the years and can speak to the popularity of these events. They don’t cost a lot, can engage the community and volunteers, and will create a more inclusive and interesting public space. Recommendation: As part of the summertime pilot budget, create a small stream for community-led placemaking projects that could be integrated into the overall programming framework. Ensure that these are included in any monitoring and evaluation processes. 5. Don’t lose sight of other opportunities. In our May 9, 2023 letter to Council, we noted that there are a number of opportunities to enhance Gastown public spaces. We recognize that there is only so much you can do in one pilot project, but we would be remiss if we didn’t use this opportunity to say don’t forget about the following opportunities: Using street-end segments of Cambie, Abbott, and Carrall (north of Water) for gathering areas Re-opening the CPR right-of-way that runs diagonally between Columbia and Pender Placemaking in commercial laneways (e.g. Homer-Cambie-Cordova Alley, Harbour Light Alley) Introducing a linkage to connect CRAB Park with Gastown Integrating public space network connections to Granville Street and the Waterfront Hub This is an ambitious project, and we are excited to see where the discussion goes at Council. With any luck, we’ll all be able to enjoy a stroll down the middle of the street come July of this year!

Assuming you are waiting to buy or have decided not to, then you have a nice pile of cash building up. What are you doing with it in this forced low rate era? None of the Central banks (UK, Canada, Euro), despite talking tough about soaring consumer debt have had the balls to increase rates. We are STILL sitting with rates at emergency levels and below inflation. So what options do we have for our money? Well a few and none are that enticing. There is the GIC. Rates are pretty low at the moment. The banks still haven’t budged much from the 1.0-1.4% for a one year fixed. You can get a little more by bargaining with your advisor. This has always irked me BTW. Why not just post better rates for everyone. Our banks, like our telecom carriers either need competition or serious regulating. I just picked up 1.8% for a one year at ING direct which is owned by Scotia now. I got this from a brokerage account and was better than their posted rate. Other institutions with lower credit ratings offer up to 2%for a one year and 3% for a five year fixed. The CDIC will insure up to $100,000 if the GIC is under 5 years. Either way you slice it, it isn’t a big chunk of money. After taxes, it is below inflation. It used to be that a one year GIC matched inflation after tax and a two year beat it. Not now that the Central banks are trying to force us to speculate (and then complain when we do) So what else is there? Bonds. You can buy bonds via any brokerage account. The rates are not much better than GIC rates at present for high credit companies and Government of Canada bonds are even lower. You can tweek things by buying stripped bonds which have a lower tax rate (capital gains instead of interest taxation). You can google this if interested. Preferred shares. These are shares that behave like bonds. They come in several flavours, some pay a steady % until maturity, others reset the rate depending on the Bank of Canada rate or rates for a ten year bond, others maybe convertible into the shares of the issuer. They pay higher rates as they are considered ‘long bonds’. However as they are shares too, they are taxed better than bonds and so a 5% yield in preferreds would be the same as getting almost 7% in a bond if you pay tax at the highest rate. Here is a good site which explains and tracks them. Though he also writes of other stuff in his commentary which I usually skip over. Garth Turner used to be a big proponent of them on his site Greater Fool. They have done very well for the last few years and then got slaughtered recently as rates have been rising. He has not mentioned them recently 🙂 Then there is the stock market. You can buy stocks directly, or mutual funds or index funds etc. Bank shares have done very well as they have been in the sweat spot. They have borrowed short (from all the people having one year GICs or getting near zero interest in their savings account) and lending out several % higher to mortgage borrowers. Even though rates are low, the spread between the short end and then long end of the rates curve has been widening and therefore the banks have been making even more money than before. The best thing is that they have been doing this risk-free. Anyone with high leverage or poor credit risk they passed off to that garbage can of risk – the tax-payer back CHMC. A scandal IMVHO. However this circus is slowly coming to an end, as outsiders from the World Bank to Investment houses to independent economists have told our Government how poorly risk is managed at the CMHC, they seem to be finally getting the message. The stock market was a good place to be for the last four years, especially the US market. But I am too leery to put new money unless there is a good correction. Rising rates are usually bad for the earnings of companies That’s about it. Can’t think of many more options. What are you doing out there?

One of the more disturbing criticisms of the housing affordability discussion is coming from some pretty obnoxious baby boomers. They are telling younger Canadians to “stop whining” and accusing them of “entitlement”. Talk about irony! The typical boomer was raised in a home where mom stayed home and dad worked an 8-hour day. Back then, the average Canadian family could afford a comfortable middle-class life in a single-family home with only one income and little household debt (less than 30% of GDP). Today families are weighed down by record-high household debt which is approaching 100% of GDP. When it came time for university, boomers graduated without the need for large student loans. Their parent’s generation picked-up the tab thanks to a top tax rate of 80%. Now, university students are being asked to finance their own education, so boomers can enjoy the lowest tax rates since the Great Depression. The situation is especially bad in BC, where the 2013 BMO Student Survey found students here graduating with almost $35,000 in student debt. When the boomers started working, they enjoyed good starting wages and generous retirement benefits — thanks to strong labour unions. As they moved up the income ladder and as some of them took over positions in government, they gave themselves huge tax cuts, greatly weakened the strength of labour unions, and put in place plenty of other perks that they disproportionately benefited from — like income splitting and TFSAs . In a report from earlier this year, the parliamentary budget officer concluded that TFSAs overwhelmingly benefit older, wealthier Canadians. Did I mention the TFSA was first proposed by one of Canada’s most prolific millennial-mocking boomers, Garth Turner? As the baby boomers stock holdings grew, corporate income tax rates fell. Since the 1980s, the Canadian corporate income tax rate has been cut in half. This has done wonders for after-tax profits, and been yet another windfall for the boomers. Ask any millennial if they expect to get the same generous government retirement benefits that older boomers now enjoy. The age for OAS is already going up. Sorry, you young entitled whiners, but there’s a good chance you’ll be working many years more than the boomers had to. When it comes to housing, boomers were able to buy a single-family home on one income. Then they got to enjoy decades of falling mortgage rates, giving them a nice bonus every time they renewed their mortgage. The outlook for millennials is much less rosy. As hard as it is now to buy a place, it’s likely to get much worse when they renew as interest rates have nowhere to go but up. One of the regional perks enjoyed by boomers has been the Agricultural Land Reserve. In the mid-1970s, after many of them bought cheap land for their homes, restrictions were put in place on future development. As a result, the ALR helped ensure that the homes of baby boomers would appreciate handsomely. We got ours, tough luck future generations! Now stop whining! And one of the most outrageous examples of boomer entitlement comes courtesy of the BC Liberals. For homeowners over the age of 55 — most of whom are equity rich — the BC government will now give you a super-low 1 per cent loan. The only requirement is that you don’t pay your property taxes. Meanwhile, the whiners get to pay over 5 per cent on their student loans. I don’t think there’s been a generation in history that’s had it as easy economically as the baby boomers. They’ve enjoyed economic tailwinds their entire life. Now that millennials are rightfully complaining that their prospects are much worse than baby boomers enjoyed, some of those boomers now have the audacity to call millennials entitled?

According to CMHC estimates, the ratio of household debt to GDP in Canada could reach 130 per cent in the third quarter of this year, a sharp increase from around 99 per cent before the pandemic. Debt as a share of disposable income, meanwhile, could also rise precipitously to 230 per cent in the third quarter, up from 176 per cent. Siddall said those ratios are well over a critical 80 per cent threshold, above which “the Bank for International Settlements has demonstrated that national debt intensifies the drag on GDP growth.” Such high debts risk future economic growth by “effectively converting future consumption into debt service payments,” he said, at a time when households and governments are increasingly leveraged. Adding to real estate concerns amid COVID-19, the agency also sees housing prices plummeting in the next calendar year. “The resulting combination of higher mortgage debt, declining housing prices and increased unemployment is cause for concern for Canada’s longer term financial stability,” Siddall said. The CMHC sees housing prices declining between nine and 18 per cent over the next 12 months. Those estimates are loosely in line with an earlier projection by DBRS Morningstar, a credit rating agency, says which says housing prices could fall between 10 and 15 per cent by 2022. By way of comparison, the owner of a $300,000 home at a five per cent down payment could lose around $45,000 if housing prices fell by 10 per cent, Siddall said. He said the agency is “debating whether we should change our underwriting policies” as a result of the pandemic, potentially restricting the future lending environment as debt levels soar. “Our support for home ownership cannot be unlimited,” he said. “It’s like blood pressure, you can have too much, [but] you need some.” – excerpt from ‘Bloody terrifying’: COVID-19 will raise household debt levels and ‘drag on GDP growth,’ CMHC warns’, Jesse Snyder, 19 May 2020, National Post Remarkably straight talk from the organization that has played such a large part in extending rope to participants over the last 20 years. And we’d guess that ‘18%’ is just a best guess estimate of the first step. As we’ve postulated over the years, when the bubble bursts, few are going to step in and overextend themselves to go into debt to buy assets that are falling in value yet still very overpriced by every metric. The Vancouver market has been predicated on prices that only go up, and the result has been prices that are about three times those determined by fundamental utility value. Once the drops start, we see no way of this all bottoming at 18%-off. In Vancouver, the direct and indirect economic effects of a drop of 18% in RE would alone almost definitely guarantee a larger drop. – vreaa