Author: Stan S.

“If homeowners can just hold off selling, the Canadian housing market will emerge fine from its current “deep freeze”. According to a recent TD Economics housing forecast update, the market is expected to gradually recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. After an anticipated “historic” plunge in sales in the month of April 2020, a “much stronger activity” is seen next year. A lot of that depends on whether homeowners can avoid distressed selling during this pandemic. “Absolutely key to our forecasts is the assumption that listings mirror sales by dropping substantially in the near-term and recovering gradually thereafter,” Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Economics, wrote. By holding off on selling, homeowners can do one thing for the market. “This puts a floor on prices and sustains relatively tight-supply demand balances across most markets, allowing for the resumption of positive price growth as provincial economies are re-opened,” Sondhi explained.” – excerpt from ‘Homeowners avoiding distressed selling key to Canadian housing market recovery: TD Economics’, Carlito Pablo, 1 May 2020, Georgia Straight No, folks, that ‘analysis’ is not from ‘The Onion’. Seems like the TD analysts have found a sure fire way of maintaining every bull market, forever… (it’s easy: just get sellers not to sell). It’s remarkable that this kind of ‘analysis’ can get parroted on & on without getting called out. Remember: Sellers aren’t competing with Buyers, they’re competing with other Sellers. How many Vancouver RE speculators (essentially each and every buyer for the last 10-15 years) are going to realize their thus-far-paper profits? We are already seeing many anecdotal examples of people who bought in 2016 or later taking losses on resales. – vreaa

Urban planner Andy Yan, director of the City Program at SFU, thinks the pandemic has exposed Vancouver’s economic fragility. Besides real estate, Yan explains, the economy is driven by service industries such as tourism, which has been clobbered by COVID-19. Not only do tourists help fuel short-term rentals like Airbnb, but many long-term renters work in tourism and hospitality. “If you were either counting on Airbnb or on a renter living in your secondary suite helping pay for your mortgage, and now they can’t, what do you do?” Yan asks. Add in the fact that international travel is now very difficult, and things could get much uglier. “You have the local economy not doing well, and now you’re cut off from the global economy,” Yan says. “So it feels like it’s 1978,” when Metro Vancouver resembled what he calls Detroit by the Pacific. His summary of that era: “It wasn’t good.” When it comes to retail and office real estate, the future looks uncertain, too, Yan reckons. It’s easy to blame Amazon, but storefront retail was already struggling before the crisis, he says. “You know how COVID takes out people with pre-existing health conditions? Well, we have pre-existing economic conditions.” As for the office property market, Yan says that before people started staying home, 20 to 30 percent of Metro Vancouver’s labour force already worked there. “If you accelerate that and it goes into now 40 or 45, maybe even 50, how much are they going to stay at home?” Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist with Central 1 Credit Union, also sees uncertainty ahead. “Commercial is probably a little bit problematic, especially the retail side, and even for some of the commercial product as work from home becomes much more normalized,” he says. “Will companies go back to requiring that large footprint they have now, or are they moving to a more nimble, work-from-home type of environment?” Either way, creating a new local economy won’t be easy. Given what the pandemic has revealed about the risks of relying on global supply chains, one possible scenario is that manufacturing returns to the region. But as Yan points out, the City of Vancouver converted much of its industrial land to residential in the 1980s and ’90s. “Now where does that industrial perhaps go?” he asks. “It either goes to, say, Surrey or Abbotsford, or it goes to Calgary or Winnipeg.” For the province as a whole, the fact that tourism, retail and other service industries dominate spells trouble in a deglobalized world, Yan warns. In food service alone, more than 120,000 B.C. workers have lost their jobs, at least temporarily, Restaurants Canada estimates. “There are these green shoots in technology or highly specialized manufacturing, but they can’t generate a mass of employment,” Yan says. – excerpt from ‘For B.C. real estate, will COVID-19 bring down the house?’ Nick Rockel, BCBusiness, Apr 23, 2020 Apt metaphors include Biblical ‘feet of clay’ and Buffett’s “when the tide goes out you discover who has been swimming naked”. – vreaa

“While lockdowns, job losses and uncertainty are roiling property markets from the U.K. to Australia to Hong Kong, Canada’s situation is more precarious than most. As its oil sector shriveled in recent years, Canada’s economy became ever more driven by real estate, an industry now in a state of paralysis. Nearly one in three workers has applied for income support. What’s more, its households are among the world’s most indebted, poorly placed to weather the storm. “I think it is the Great Reckoning,” says Douglas Hoyes, a bankruptcy trustee in Kitchener, Ontario. “We’ve been in a period for so long where it didn’t matter what property you bought or how highly leveraged you were. Well, guess what? Now it matters.” Since the economy began shuttering in mid-March to slow the spread of coronavirus, policy makers have raced to buttress the property market. Banks are offering mortgage holidays, including to landlords with multiple loans on investment properties. That has raised eyebrows even within the real estate industry. “Should someone with four properties really be granted financial assistance?” asks Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver realtor. “Where exactly do we draw the line?” The country may not have much of a choice but to prop up housing. Real estate has become Canada’s largest sector. Including residential construction, it accounted for 15% of economic output last year; energy accounted for 9%. If it collapses, there’s not much that can pick up the slack — certainly not oil nor the seemingly unflappable consumer. Canadians have been on a two decade spending spree since a downward shift in mortgage rates began in the 1990s. Toronto and Vancouver, the two biggest housing markets, haven’t had a major correction during that time. Housing turned into a wealth-conjuring machine. As values spiraled higher, homeowners felt richer — they spent more, borrowed more, and sent prices even higher. That virtuous circle just popped. The City of Vancouver fears it’s heading for insolvency after it surveyed residents and found that 45% of households say they can’t pay their full mortgage next month and a quarter expect to pay less than half of their property tax bills this year. It’s a stunning contrast to 2016, when those lucky enough to own a detached house in the west coast city watched their net worth balloon on average by more than C$1,600 ($1,130) a day without ever leaving home. In one year, the city’s properties surged in value by C$47 billion, more than double the cumulative take-home income of all its residents. Tellingly, billboards by the consumer financial watchdog began cropping up — “Don’t use your house like an ATM” — as homeowners borrowed against those gains to fund renovations, vacations, and rental properties. Today, Canadian households owe C$1.76 for every dollar in disposable income. In Vancouver, that spikes to more than C$2.30 — a ratio that puts the so-called supercar capital of North America on par with Iceland before the global financial crisis. Recessions tend to be deeper and last longer when households are mired in debt — an alarming prospect for a nation that may already be experiencing its sharpest contraction on record. Canadians owe C$2.3 trillion in mortgages, credit card, and other consumer debt, about equal to the country’s GDP, which is an even higher ratio than the U.S. had before its housing bust. “You have all of these flammable items that just need a spark, some external shock,” says Anthony Scilipoti, president of Toronto-based Veritas Investment Research Corp. “And this virus is a worst-case scenario none of us would have predicted.” Airbnb Customers Vanish It doesn’t take much to tip a seemingly tight market into a meltdown. If only 2% of the housing stock were to be listed for sale, it would trigger the kind of supply shock behind a 1990 crash, according to Veritas. That’s most likely to come from investors, half of whom weren’t generating enough cash to cover the cost of owning their rental properties, Veritas found in a survey last September. For loss-making landlords, things are about to get a lot worse: about 30% of apartment rent due April 1 went uncollected, according to estimates by CIBC Economics. That’s in line with similar estimates of U.S. rental collections. Then there are those who invested in properties for the short-term rental market that’s all but dried up because of travel restrictions. Nearly a third of Canada’s Airbnb hosts — who jointly had 170,000 active listings in late 2019 — need the income to avoid foreclosure or eviction, Airbnb said in a letter to the Canadian government last month. Confronting a swiftly collapsing pool of renters, more than 200 Canadian listings have exploded across Vrbo and Airbnb in recent weeks pitching themselves as isolation or quarantine havens, many offering Covid-19 discounts, according to data from Toronto-based Harmari, which analyzes online classifieds. Former Airbnb rental units have also cropped up in sales listings. Shaky Pillars Economists and lenders have long pointed to two pillars that have underpinned housing: a robust labor market and the biggest increase in international immigration in more than a century. Neither is holding up. Nearly 6 million Canadians have applied for income support. Lenders had deferred nearly 600,000 mortgages, about 12% of the mortgages they hold, as of April 9. Meanwhile, immigration targets, based upon an earlier growing labor shortage, will almost certainly be scaled back. In steps that dwarf those taken during the global financial

Here’s my yearly roundup of the best books released by local authors and publishers this year, just in time for your last-minute literary gift shopping. Let us rejoice in the glory of our regionally written words! Cascadia Cookbook (Said The Whale Music) Vancouver band Said the Whale has been filling our ears with their West Coast-flavoured indie rock for over a decade. Now, as a tasty compliment to their 2019 album Cascadia, the band fills our stomachs with the release of Casadia Cookbook. In this beautifully designed, 80-page feast, you’ll find Pacific Northwest-inspired recipes paired to each song on the album, for dishes such as salal berry pie or “Buckaroo Spuds.” The book was designed by Said the Whale keyboardist/band chef/skilled baker Jaceyln Brown, with mouth-watering photography by Lindsey Blane. A perfect addition for any West Coast kitchen. Cougar Companions by Judith Williams (Harbour Publishing) Sink your claws into this incredible and untold true story from B.C.’s coast. This is the wild tale of the Schnarr family: single father August, a trapper, logger, and skilled amateur photographer, and his three young daughters, all trying to make a go of it in remote Bute Inlet. The Schnarr family was infamous in the 1930s for their collection of fully grown pet cougars. Cortes Island author Judith Williams passionately unfolds this adventure with the help of August Schnarr’s lifetime of incredible photographs. Finding Callidora by Stella Leventoyannis Harvey (Signature Editions) If you enjoy exciting historical fiction, you must escape into this epic novel by Whistler author Stella Leventoyannis Harvey. Inside, you’ll enter into a bloody family saga that spans generations, continents and two world wars. Driven by actual headlines of the eras, this is a fast read convincingly set on remote Greek islands, Egyptian streets, rugged Turkish landscapes and, finally, Canada, as a scattered family tries to piece together a tragic past. I Saw Three Ships: West End Stories by Bill Richardson (Talonbooks) A smart and hilarious collection of fictional short stories set in Vancouver’s most densely populated neighbourhood, penned by the great humourist, author, broadcaster and longtime West End resident Bill Richardson. All eight of the finely tuned stories within are linked by West End characters from various walks of life, set amongst the garishly decorated apartment lobbies of Christmastime west of Burrard. (Bonus tip: I think the Paper Hound on Pender Street has signed copies.) Major Misconduct: the Human Cost of Fighting In Hockey by Jeremy Allingham (Arsenal Pulp Press) In his debut book, author and CBC Vancouver journalist Jeremy Allingham has provided a potential knockout blow to hockey fights, as well as the toxic culture that surrounds it. And timing is everything. As if predicting the sea change that may finally be cracking up our frozen game, less than a month after this book came out, several notable figures in hockey’s leadership circles have been fired or put on leave. A very revealing read for any fan, especially those who think fighting should still be part of hockey on any level. Vancouver After Dark by Aaron Chapman (Arsenal Pulp Press) Whether it’s saucy stories of Oil Can Harry’s, the Cave, Retinal Circus or (my personal favourite) the Starfish Room, Aaron Chapman’s latest outing nattily steps into a century of Vancouver’s nightlife with crisp detail and refreshing research. Like a cold Kokanee upon entrance at the Town Pump, consider this book essential consumption for any Vancouverite (from any era) who has ever experienced our city’s notorious and colourful nightclubs. All of these best of 2019 books are available at Vancouver’s independent booksellers, including the newly opened Iron Dog Books at 2761 East Hastings. Happy holidays, and happy reading! Grant Lawrence is the author of three award-winning nonfiction books, most of which are at least partially set in Vancouver.

The 1913 Alta Vista reservoir in South Burnaby is exposed during its demolition last week. Photo: Contributed Neighbours living near South Burnaby’s Alta Vista Park have gotten their first and last glance of a cavernous reservoir that has lain beneath their neighbourhood for 106 years. The Alta Vista reservoir, built in 1913 to collect water coming in through new water mains from Seymour Creek on the North Shore, was demolished last week to allow for the expansion of a nearby playground. About 26 metres long, 14 metres wide and 4.3 metres deep, with a capacity of more than 1 million litres, it serviced the growing historic neighbourhood of Alta Vista on the South Slope until it was decommissioned about 15 or 20 years ago. An engineering report in 2016 determined the underground structure, which sat under two parcels of land at 5172 McKee St., would be at risk of collapse during an earthquake and would need to be demolished to enable safe use of the site. A 100-signature petition from residents last December sealed the reservoir’s fate. In March, city council approved a plan to demolish it and expand the park. The only remnant of the 106-year-old structure that will be preserved is a nearly four-metre-tall concrete column that had stood on the north end of the property. A pipe inside the column was once essential for releasing air pressure in the reservoir through a decorative metal vent at its top. City staff successfully cut the pillar from the reservoir before the demolition. Wrapped in bubble wrap, two-by-fours and steel strapping, the column has now been placed in storage. It will be restored or rebuilt and may be reinstalled in the expanded playground, according to city heritage planner Lisa Codd.

Aerial view of Las Vegas strip in Nevada as seen at night USA / Shutterstock If you’re looking for an inexpensive vacation package out of the Lower Mainland this winter, Swoop is offerings a number of getaways for a steal. While the low-cost carrier offers a plethora of destinations to choose from, its Las Vegas packages offer some of the cheapest deals on the market. For example, the package below, which departs Abbotsford on Sunday, Jan. 12, 2020 and returns a few nights later on Thursday, Jan. 16, costs a total of $356.77 for two people. As such, the per person total comes to roughly $178 CAD including all taxes and fees. Photo: Swoop For those looking for a slightly nicer accommodation, Swoop offers the same dates at the LINQ Hotel & Casino for only $214 CAD per person including all taxes and fees. What’s more, some of the nicest resorts in the city of sin, such as Caesers Palace, Paris, and Bellagio, only cost a few hundred dollars more.   Photo: Swoop Discover Las Vegas While it can be fun to explore the famous Las Vegas Strip after nightfall, there are still a number of fun things to do during the day. For example, there are a plethora of fun pool parties to attend, as well as places to shop, dine, and enjoy beverages. In addition, Las Vegas offers some of the best entertainment in the world every night of the week. Whether you are looking to see a musical, a magic show, a band, or a DJ, Vegas has it all. The city also offers a number of fun things to try just outside of the strip that include everything from the Grand Canyon to Old Las Vegas to ghost towns. Note: While the low-cost carrier is an extremely affordable alternative, it is worthwhile to note that there are a number of additional costs. For one, luggage will cost extra, as will selecting your own seat or even speaking to an operator. As such, it is worthwhile to factor in what you need to bring, or if you want to sit in a particular spot. You can book your travel with Swoop here.

A Surrey man claims he discovered too late that a beer bottle he was served at the Grand Villa Casino was chipped. Burnaby NOW file photo A Surrey man claims he accidentally drank glass from a broken beer bottle at Burnaby’s Grand Villa Casino. Gurcharan Singh Grewal filed a lawsuit against the casino and its parent company, Gateway Casinos and Entertainment, among other defendants, following an alleged incident in December 2017. According to the lawsuit, Grewal was at the Personas Bar in the Grand Villa Casino and ordered a beer from the bartender. After taking his first sip, he allegedly “felt a sharp object enter his throat, causing much discomfort and internal injuries.” Grewal claimed in his lawsuit that he found a chip in the glass on the rim of the beer bottle “due to the bartender incorrectly opening” it. As a result, Grewal said he suffered lacerations to his mouth, injury to his throat and esophagus, difficulty swallowing, discomfort and anxiety. Grewal “continues to undergo medical care” resulting from the injuries, according to his court filing, and “continues to suffer pain and discomfort and emotional upset.” Grewal is also seeking damages for alleged loss of income relating to the incident, as well as an alleged loss of housekeeping ability at home. The claims have not been proven in a court of law, and none of the defendants has yet responded to the lawsuit.

Photo: SkyTrain cars turn a corner at Gilmore station in Burnaby. TransLink is preparing customers after CUPE 7000, the union representing 900 SkyTrain workers, announced that it would forward with full withdrawal of services on Tuesday, Dec. 10. The transit authority released a statement listing a number of options for riders if union job action causes a total Expo and Millennium Line shut down December 10, 11 and 12. It adds that they, “should be aware the travel options will not match the level of service these SkyTrain lines provide.”   With this in mind, TransLink notes that the following services will be operating normally, including:   Canada Line West Coast Express Coast Mountain Bus West Vancouver Blue Bus HandyDART SeaBus Earlier today, Coast Mountain Bus Company announced that it would not be increasing bus service in response to the planned strike given operational constraints and labour considerations. As such, customers should expect heavier passenger volume.  If possible, customers are advised to make other arrangements such as:   Using one of our park and rides to connect to bus service Travelling outside of rush hours Working from home Using a carpooling service such as Liftango and gobyRIDE Walking or cycling to work Free bike valet service at Vancouver Public Library from 7:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. To plan a trip without SkyTrain, both TransLink’s Trip Planner and Google Maps have an option to exclude SkyTrain. Visit translink.ca/stayinformed to learn more about alternative travel options.

Photo: smarieannachu / Reddit What product are you willing to wait an hour in line for? For many residents of the Lower Mainland, the Compass Mini – a new payment option that looks just like a small Compass Card – is worth an hour-long wait, if not longer. TransLink rolled out the petite payment card on Friday, Dec. 5, and eager customers lined up before the Compass Customer Service Centre opened. Shortly after opening, the transit authority announced that it would limit the number of Minis to two per person due to high demand. And while the small smart card easily attaches to keychains and backpacks, smarieannachu shared another way to rock the highly sought-after item on Vancouver Reddit. The post, which has been up-voted a whopping 2,710 times since it was first uploaded to the platform, shows a young woman wearing two Compass Mini keychains as earrings in a video. Above the video, the caption reads, “Got my hands on the hottest accessory drop of the season.” Got my hands on the hottest accessory drop of the season from r/vancouver A number of commenters asked how much it hurts her to have the keychain squeezing her ear, while others asked if the earrings were real. In a comment, the original poster remarks, “It’s the new “compassmini” compass card that was released today in limited quantities, I’m just trying to be funny by clipping them on my ears haha.” TransLink states that the Compass Mini works the same as the Compass Card and Compass Wristband. Riders simply tap in and out when travelling on transit and reload online, at a Compass Vending Machine, by phone, or in person. Of course, just like the other Compass products, there is a $6 refundable deposit when purchasing a new Mini.

A new report finds responding officers not negligent in the August death of Langley teen Carson Crimeni by accidental drug overdose. Photo via GoFundMe The Independent Investigations Office of B.C. (IIO) says two police officers were not negligent when they were initially unable to locate Langley teenager Carson Crimeni in a park as he overdosed from drugs. The four-page IIO report released Monday by chief civilian director Ronald MacDonald, Q.C., states two police officers “acted completely reasonably in the circumstances” and “played no role” in Crimeni’s “tragic” death. On August 7, Crimeni was “showing clear signs of distress” in a Snapchat video reported by one teenager to a parent, who then called 911 upon being told Crimeni may have taken 15 ecstasy pills (MDMA, or “Molly”). The IIO investigation looked into the police response that followed. Just after 8 p.m., police were dispatched to the Walnut Grove skate park, and two officers arrived at 8:25 p.m. Six minutes later, one officer reported via radio that nobody was at the park. The officers were not entirely clear if the video was a prank or when exactly it took place, the report states. At 8:43 the officers left for another call. At 10:39 p.m., a second 911 call came in after Crimeni was spotted alone in “serious medical distress” near a baseball diamond located 650 metres away from the skate park. At that point, police and paramedics responded and located the teenager and took him to the hospital, where he died. MacDonald determined there was nothing at the skate park that could have indicated to police that Crimeni, or the group of youth who had been with him, had moved to the baseball diamond. Crimeni’s death sparked much discussion within the community over drug use and bullying, as family members believe he was given the drugs and pressured to take them. As he went into distress, the group filmed and mocked him, according to reports. The report is based on statements from two paramedics, nine civilian witnesses, police dispatch records and 911 audio recordings. The two police officers did not provide evidence to the IIO.