Author: Stan S.

Unless negotiation is successful Monday night, Metro Vancouver will face a SkyTrain shutdown starting at 5 a.m. on Tuesday, December 10. Photo by Dan Toulgoet Many Metro Vancouver  commuters may be on edge Monday wondering if car-mageddon will kick in Tuesday if there’s a SkyTrain shutdown. With the union discontinuing media statements and negotiations under a media blackout, The Tri-City News reached out to TransLink to find out what’s going on. For now, it appears talks are ongoing as both sides in the dispute try to reach an agreement before the union’s deadline strike beginning Tuesday morning. In its latest press release, CUPE Local 7000 said it is committed to negotiating for a new contract at the bargaining table and reaching a deal with no disruption of service. However, due to concerns about TransLink statements to the media, the union stated in a press release it will be making no more media statements until further notice. “If no agreement is reached, job action will begin with a full shutdown from Tuesday through Thursday,” according to a press release. CUPE Local 7000 represents approximately 900 SkyTrain workers who provide service as SkyTrain attendants and control operators as well as administration, maintenance and technical staff. Its last contract expired Aug. 31. The union is negotiating with the British Columbia Rapid Transit Co. In its press release, TransLink stated it “remains committed to getting a deal done. We will continue bargaining until the last moment to avoid this unnecessary and disruptive job action.” The last SkyTrain strike was a single-day shutdown more than 20 years ago. Additionally, Coast Mountain Bus Company has announced that it will not be increasing bus service in response to the planned strike, citing their “operational constraints and labour considerations.” Here are five things you need to know based on TransLink’s answers to questions: 1. Are there any talks scheduled today between BCRTC and CUPE 7000? Yes. Talks will continue as long as needed today (Monday). 2. What is the union is asking for? We are respecting the process and not talking about the contents of the offer at this stage. 3. Why can’t SkyTrain operate with excluded staff? While trains are automated, we need staff in the control room telling trains what to do. We can’t operate the system without these people. 4. How will you be communicating a shutdown? Customers should assume the strike is happening and prepare for it, even if there’s a chance for a last-minute deal. We will send a statement and use social media should job action be averted. We will be sending some info for customers later today. It’s important to note while all other services will be running, there will be no additional bus service. It’s regular operations. 5. What time is the shutdown to take place Tuesday if no agreement is reached? The shutdown will be effective at the start of the service day. No trains will be leaving the yard Tuesday morning if there’s no deal. If no agreement is reached, the system-wide shutdown affecting the Millennium and Expo lines (including the Evergreen Extension to Port Moody and Coquitlam) is scheduled to begin Tuesday at 5 a.m. with normal service set to resume by Friday at 5 a.m. Buses, the Canada Line, SeaBus, West Coast Express and HandyDart will not be affected. With files from Elana Shepert/Vancouver Is Awesome

HK BBQ Master. Photo by Lindsay William-Ross/Vancouver Is Awesome Seth Rogen was right: “The best BBQ places are generally in the underground parking garage of department stores.” The Vancouver-born actor was talking about HK BBQ Master, the local legend in the Chinese BBQ game that is located off Number 3 Road in Richmond in the parking garage under the Real Canadian SuperStore. Rogen ended up there earlier this year on a tip from a (very smart) buddy, and it was all captured in chef and restaurateur David Chang’s Netflix show Breakfast, Lunch, and Dinner . While the Chang show features him and Rogen eating and exploring their way around Vancouver – and Richmond – when the show dropped in October, those who wanted to check out HK BBQ Master and enjoy some of chef/owner Eric Leung’s legendary BBQ duck or pork, soy sauce chicken with rice, sauce, and steamed greens were SOL: HK BBQ Master closed down Oct. 1 for a major renovation. Initially hoping to be done by November with the expansion into the next door space that allows for much more seating, HK BBQ Master finally was able to welcome the public back into their now-expanded space as of Sunday, December 8. View this post on Instagram The wait is almost over! We’re officially opening this Sunday December 8! Hope to see everyone here! #reopening #grandopening #richmond #waitisover #bbq #dailyhive #richmondtourism #vancover #netflix #hkbbqmaster A post shared by HK BBQ Master (@hkbbqmaster) on Dec 6, 2019 at 6:32pm PST That means NOW you can head there, cash in hand, to try the city’s best Chinese BBQ eats. Be ready for a line, and try to get there before they’re sold out for the day. Now, if only Chang’s Vancouver outpost of Momofuku Noodle Bar would hurry up and be done… HK BBQ Master is located at 4651 No 3 Rd in Richmond.

Arctic animals like the polar bear are the focus of a new ‘pampering with purpose’ campaign from a duo of B.C. small businesses. Photo: @kpuresnow/Instagram Karen Johnson started her all-natural skincare brand, K’pure, out of her garage a few years ago. The Mission, B.C. mother of four was looking for an alternative to mass-market deodorants and lotion that were passing aluminum and plastics through her breastmilk to her then-infant son. She got to work coming up with formulas of her own, and word began to spread in her community about her non-toxic and all-natural products that work so well. Soon, what was a hobby evolved into a full-scale operation, and a bustling business with an impressive product line that includes masques, room sprays, serums, bath soaks, body butters, and much more. View this post on Instagram Our first product of the day is: Get Closer deodorant! Have you made the switch to a natural deodorant yet? Have you heard about potential detox symptoms and you’re too scared to make the switch? ?Did you know that antiperspirant works by using nasty ingredients like aluminum to block your sweat? So when you stop using antiperspirant, all of those gross toxins will be looking for a way to escape your body and your pores. ?The best way to make the switch is to quit antiperspirant cold turkey. Switch to Get Closer or Get Gently Closer and if you find you have detox symptoms, use our Clean Up mud masque or Goal Digger clay masque on your pits 2-3 times a week. Once detox is finished, stick to the masque application once a week. This will balance pH in the area and keep things smooth, clean and free of irritation. Sometimes we may think we have an aversion to baking soda, when in fact we need a good deep clean in the area with the masque to balance the area. Be sure to keep an eye on our Stories today for more deodorant tips, and don’t forget to post your most creative Stories and/or post with Get Closer for your chance to win a $50 shop credit. Make sure to tag @kpurenaturals in your stories and posts and remember that private accounts cannot be seen! A post shared by k’pure (@kpurenaturals) on Nov 18, 2019 at 9:11am PST Savvily, Johnson made great use of social media – particularly Instagram – to grow her business, with influencers and celebrities spreading the gospel that K’pure shares on its own feed. With an appealing aesthetic and messaging centred on strong women, caring for animals, self-care, family, and nature, K’pure definitely reflects a way of life, and lets people vote with their shopping dollars by supporting a small business with big ethics. Not surprisingly, it was on Instagram where I first learned about Johnson and her K’pure line. I’d just begun the quest to find a natural deodorant, and K’pure was highly recommended. I had tried a few others and was wondering if going back to commercial and chemical-laden products was my only option, but I gave K’pure a shot, and I’ve been a customer for nearly two years now. In addition to the Get Closer natural deodorant, the Almond Cookie spray and the Perk Up coffee scrub are personal favourites. Recently, Johnson took K’pure’s ability to use a product to amplify a cause to the next level. She teamed up with Vancouver-based marketing agency Partner & Hawes to release two products under the sub-label “Snow” for which proceeds go to support arctic environmental causes – Canada’s snowy north and its beautiful inhabitants that need help in the face of climate change. View this post on Instagram I am VERY excited to share with you a very special project I have been working on with Taya at @partners_hawes The original idea was to create some holiday client gifts for @partners_hawes and this snowballed into a new line called Snow. Today we present to you our first two bracingly fresh products: Arctic Bath Soak and Arctic Mist. Proceeds benefit arctic habitants, inspiring you to give consciously this holiday season. Our Polar Bears will thank you for it! Find more Snow inspiration at @kpuresnow and check out the new site via the link in our bio. You can purchase our newest Snow products on the new website or on our current k’pure website, and in stores SOON! A post shared by k’pure (@kpurenaturals) on Nov 25, 2019 at 8:03am PST There is a Snow “Arctic Mist” spray for your skin, linens, or room, as well as a Snow bath soak. Both have a bright, bracing, wintery feel but pack a lot of soothing, and are of course all-natural and cruelty-free. The concept for the “Snow” line is one of “pampering with purpose.” Essentially, it’s that you can still enjoy self-care while simultaneously giving back. Feel good, do good. “This project is super exciting and dear to my heart. It’s for a great cause, one that I think is under-supported yet critical,” says Johnson. “I’m ecstatic to shine light, share awareness and raise funds for this worthy initiative. My hope is that Snow creates a flurry of positive impact.” The Snow products are available online via their own web portal, or you can check out the full K’pure range online (or see who stocks the products at a store near you).

“A recent report from Central 1 Credit Union suggests a rebound in Metro Vancouver’s housing market is coming. However, at the moment there are property owners losing hundreds-of-thousands of dollars on their investments.” There follow examples of homeowners losing money, care of @mortimer_1: 1. Burnaby. Bought $1.9M May 2016, Sold 2019 $1.495M, Loss $405K + expenses (over 21%) 2. Burnaby. Bought $3.11M 2016, Sold $2.1M 2019, Loss $1.01M + expenses (over 32.5%) 3. Vancouver Westside. Bought $2.7M Feb 2016, Sold $2M 2019, Loss $700K + expenses (over 25.9%) 4. North Vancouver. Bought $2.36M Mar 2017, Sold $2.05 2019, Loss $310K + expenses (over 13.1%) – from David Carrigg, Vancouver Sun, 5 Dec 2019 (image: Anselm Kiefer) Seeing terms like “homeowners hosed” and “falling market” in top-of-the-page Vancouver Sun headlines is certainly worthy of note – particularly for those of us who have been following this long enough to have endured years and years of local media entranced with rising prices. (Anybody remember the well-known local TV anchor exclaiming “I love Real Estate!” ?) However, note that the Sun still talks about homes as “investments” – perhaps that will have to change before we’re done. Here and elsewhere, some discussion of ‘soft landings’ that is clearly based more on hope than observation. As noted previously, our target prices should be determined by utility value of properties, not on imagined future sale prices. Current prices are still far above those levels. It ain’t over. – vreaa

REBGV headline detached averages have dropped from peak $1850 K to current $1486 K, about 17%. Sleuths such as @VanREflipflops have revealed many examples of substantially higher drops. At what price levels will support come in? and from where? and when?… All of this currently speculative (cough, cough). Using the price chart and other past markets as a guide, REBGV headline detached prices (real, adjusted for inflation) could drop back to support determined by prices seen in 2013 (-45% from peak), 2009 (-60%), or even 2003 (-78%). This will still seem incredible to most, but it is the lesson from comparable speculative manias. Are locals going to be lining up to overextend themselves into RE anytime soon? If not, prices still have a long way to drop. – vreaa

“The cost of buying a home in B.C. increased by as much as five per cent last year due to more than $5 billion in dirty money from organized crime laundered through the province’s real estate sector, according to a new expert panel report. Former deputy attorney general Maureen Maloney chaired the panel on money laundering, which released a report Thursday that concluded it “cautiously estimates that almost five per cent of the value of real estate transactions in the province result from money laundering investment.” In addition, she concluded: “The estimated impact of that would be to increase housing prices by about five per cent.” “Successfully reducing money laundering investment in B.C. real estate should have modest but observable impact on housing affordability,” read the Maloney report.” – excerpt and image from ‘$5 billion laundered through B.C. real estate, inflating home prices: report’, Rob Shaw & Joanne Lee-Young, 9 May 2019 An extra 5% price rise last year? Gee, that’d be the difference between supernatural 7% a year housing price increases that have characterized our bubble, and… inflation (about 2%). [But we don’t think this means we can conclude that this has been a long term effect. It may have been, but we can’t be sure]. As readers of this blog know, we’ve long thought that the primary driver of the bubble has been local buyers prepared to extend debt to the gills to get in, and that those buyers have been particularly besotted by the ‘Chinese-are-coming’ story. There has, of course, been a direct effect of foreign-buyer-demand, but this pales when compared to local speculation. Money-laundering juice certainly could have contributed, both directly, and perhaps more importantly indirectly by further cementing the foreign-demand story. Interesting to think that it may have been a critically important amount. With a coming clampdown (or even threat of a clampdown) it’ll be interesting to see the effects this has on prices going forward. Speculators (foreign and local) hate falling markets, and floor prices determined by fundamentals are far below. – vreaa

“The cost of buying a home in B.C. increased by as much as five per cent last year due to more than $5 billion in dirty money from organized crime laundered through the province’s real estate sector, according to a new expert panel report. Former deputy attorney general Maureen Maloney chaired the panel on money laundering, which released a report Thursday that concluded it “cautiously estimates that almost five per cent of the value of real estate transactions in the province result from money laundering investment.” In addition, she concluded: “The estimated impact of that would be to increase housing prices by about five per cent.” “Successfully reducing money laundering investment in B.C. real estate should have modest but observable impact on housing affordability,” read the Maloney report.” – excerpt and image from ‘$5 billion laundered through B.C. real estate, inflating home prices: report’, Rob Shaw & Joanne Lee-Young, 9 May 2019 An extra 5% price rise last year? Gee, that’d be the difference between supernatural 7% a year housing price increases that have characterized our bubble, and… inflation (about 2%). [But we don’t think this means we can conclude that this has been a long term effect. It may have been, but we can’t be sure]. As readers of this blog know, we’ve long thought that the primary driver of the bubble has been local buyers prepared to extend debt to the gills to get in, and that those buyers have been particularly besotted by the ‘Chinese-are-coming’ story. There has, of course, been a direct effect of foreign-buyer-demand, but this pales when compared to local speculation. Money-laundering juice certainly could have contributed, both directly, and perhaps more importantly indirectly by further cementing the foreign-demand story. Interesting to think that it may have been a critically important amount. With a coming clampdown (or even threat of a clampdown) it’ll be interesting to see the effects this has on prices going forward. Speculators (foreign and local) hate falling markets, and floor prices determined by fundamentals are far below. – vreaa

The school site in International Village was reserved decades ago – but Provincial funding for the building was only approved a couple of years ago. Now the three-storey steel framed building, with cantilevered upper floors to get the needed floorspace on the tight site, has been completed. Designed by Francl Architecture, the building replaced a temporary parking lot that for several years couldn’t be used for parking because the childcare built to the north was built over the site access. For some years before the Firenze towers were built here (completed in 2007) there was the International Village lake. Construction of the underground parking commenced in the 1990s, but was then stalled for several years as the housing market took a break. The hole filled with water, and even attracted wildlife. In the further past this was freight yards and warehouses – in 1912 the site where the school has been constructed was shown as ‘hay storage’. Before image: 2012, after image 2017.

Today, Finance Minister Mike de Jong released nineteen days worth of real estate transaction data. In it, there were a total of 5,118 transactions. 260 (5.08%) of these properties were purchased by foreign nationals. Now, five percent might not sound like a lot, but consider this. When a resident buys a property, they will almost always sell another or vacate a rental — leaving total housing supply unchanged. When a foreign buyer acquires a property, they probably don’t. In light of the huge surge in Chinese capital flight recently, it’s safe to say most Chinese purchasers are buying properties without selling another. That indeed seems to be the case, as pointed out in my last post. Further, if those foreign buyers leave those homes empty, or only use them as vacation properties, available housing supply shrinks. It’s impossible to say how many of those homes will remain unoccupied, but even if we assume that only half of them are,  housing supply effectively decreased by 130 over those 19 days in June. At that rate, available housing supply could decline 2,500 over the course of the entire year. When you consider housing starts for the Vancouver metro area have been averaging 20,000 the last few years, if 2,500 homes are effectively removed from total supply, this is equivalent to a 12.5% drop in housing starts. That’s very significant.

Many involved in the Vancouver housing affordability discussion think the problem is that we aren’t building enough homes. They look at active listings — which are indeed low — and conclude we have a supply problem. Last month, B.C. Finance Minister Mike de Jong said, “I don’t believe the answer is to try and artificially constrain demand whether it is from within the country, within the province or internationally. I think the answer is for us to work together as governments and increase supply.” On June 2, at the UDI Luncheon, Bob Rennie went as far as saying, “only supply will cool the market”. Over on Twitter, urban development specialist Bob Ransford’s favourite hashtag is #ItsSupplyStupid. Well, is it supply? Are we stupid? Here are the housing start numbers from CMHC. It certainly doesn’t look like a supply problem! Maybe this supposed supply problem is really a demand problem? When housing markets are overheated, sellers are reluctant to sell and fence-sitters jump into the market because of their fear of missing out. Just look at what happened to supply in Phoenix in 2005 when their market went nuts. Inventory dropped to historic lows, from over 25,000 to under 10,000 in less than a year. I’ll bet the Bob Rennies and Mike de Jongs of Phoenix were complaining about a supply problem too. But once the market slowed, look how fast supply magically appeared!  From under 10,000 to over 40,000 in a year. That’s what happens when a market turns. Buyer’s fear of missing out turns into fear of losing money. And developers, thinking more supply is needed, ramp-up activity. As a result, sales numbers fall and inventory takes off. What might have looked like a shortage was really excessive demand. Based on the housing start numbers, it’s reasonable to conclude the same is true today in Vancouver. Maybe it’s demand, stupid?